A record-breaking hit could seize both awards, unless there’s a backlash to its enormous success.
There’s usually a fairly high degree of overlap in the Grammy nominees for record and song of the year. At the 2026 ceremony, seven songs were nominated in both categories. The only difference in the two fields was that Chappell Roan’s “The Subway” was up for record of the year, while the KPop Demon Hunters smash “Golden” was up for song of the year.
Five songs appearing in both categories is more typical. That was the magic number two years ago, and also three years ago, and it seems likely to be the number again this year.
The No. 1 most-asked question about the Grammys, dating back to the days of Domenico Modugno, is “what’s the difference between record and song of the year?” Record of the year honors a specific recording of a song, and is awarded to the artist(s), producer(s), engineer(s), mixer(s) and mastering engineer(s). Song of the year honors the song itself. It goes to the songwriter(s).
Usually, an artist submits his or her strongest entry from the eligibility year in both categories, but sometimes the artists submit different works. Bruno Mars pioneered this approach 10 years ago and won in both categories, with “24K Magic” in record of the year and “That’s What I Like” in song of the year. This year, he’s trying that split strategy again, with “I Just Might” (record) and “Risk It All” (song). Taylor Swift is also trying this approach, with “The Fate of Ophelia” (record) and “I Knew It, I Knew You (from Toy Story 5)” (song). (And yes, that’s how the title of Swift’s movie tune appears on the eligibility list. They want to make sure voters make the association with the movie.)
We first previewed the Grammy nominations in the marquee categories back in July. This week, we’ve been updating those predictions, as needed. On Monday, we looked at album of the year, probably the most prestigious and coveted Grammy Award. Today, we’re taking on record and song of the year. On Wednesday, we’ll look at best new artist.
The biggest change I made from July was moving Tame Impala and Jennie’s “Dracula” to the top tier in record of the year, replacing Sienna Spiro’s “Die on This Hill.” (I kept “Die on This Hill” in song of the year.)
Six of the eight likeliest record of the year nominees were produced or co-produced by the artists. The only ones where the artists didn’t have a producer credit are the hits by the Olivias – Zach Nahome produced Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need”; Daniel Nigro did the honors on Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure.”
A total of 779 records are competing for eight slots in the record of the year category on the final ballot. The field is even larger in song of the year, where a total of 923 songs are competing. So nominations, even for the biggest stars, are hard to come by.
Here are our best guesses for who will be nominated — listed in alphabetical order, followed by shortlists of other possibilities, also listed in alphabetical order.
The eligibility period for the 69th annual Grammy Awards ran from Aug. 31, 2025, through Aug. 28, 2026.
Record of the Year
OLIVIA DEAN, “MAN I NEED”
This would be Dean’s first nomination in this category. Dean would be the third artist named Olivia to be nominated in this category: Olivia Newton-John won in 1975 for “I Honestly Love You.” Olivia Rodrigo has been nominated twice and is likely to receive her third nod this year.
Hot 100 peak: No. 2
Producer: Zach Nahome
NOAH KAHAN, “THE GREAT DIVIDE”
This could bring Kahan his first nomination in this category. The song was featured in an extended Mastercard ad during this year’s Grammy telecast. Lady Gaga’s “Abracadabra,” which was featured in a similar ad during the 2025 telecast, landed a record of the year nod at this year’s ceremony.
Hot 100 peak: No. 6
Producers: Noah Kahan, Gabe Simon
ELLA LANGLEY, “CHOOSIN’ TEXAS”
This smash set a new, all-time record for most weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100. That could trigger, if not a backlash, at least some resistance – it almost invites people to say “Oh, it’s not all that great.” That would be unfair: A record shouldn’t win just because of its commercial success, but it also shouldn’t lose because of it. Grammy voters should try to block all that out and just evaluate the record.
This would be Langley’s first nomination in this category and the first for a core country artist performing a country song since Lady A won for “Need You Now” in 2011. Taylor Swift was well along on her transition to pop when “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” was nominated at the 2013 ceremony. Beyoncé was not a core country artist when “Texas Hold ’Em” was nominated two years go. Maren Morris was a core country artist when “The Middle” was nominated eight years ago, but that collab with Zedd and Grey was a pop record.
Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (26 weeks)
Producers: Ella Langley, Ben West, Miranda Lambert
BRUNO MARS, “I JUST MIGHT”
This would be Mars’ eighth nomination in this category as an artist. (He was also nominated as a producer of CeeLo Green’s “F**k You! (Forget You).”) Only Beyoncé has had more (nine). Mars performed “I Just Might” during this year’s Grammy telecast. Three times prior, Mars performed just-released songs at the ceremony that went on to be nominated in this category the following year: “Grenade,” “Locked Out of Heaven” and the Silk Sonic smash “Leave the Door Open.”
Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (three weeks)
Producers: Bruno Mars, Dernst “D Mile” Emile II
RAYE, “WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!”
This irrepressible hit is a canny blend of old and new R&B sounds. RAYE has received four Grammy nods, including for best new artist at the 2025 ceremony. If this is nominated, this will be the second time in three years that a title that ends in an exclamation point has been up for record of the year: In 2025, Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” was nominated.
Grammy Lore: In 1964, a song about wives was nominated for record and song of the year – Jack Jones’ suave rendition of Bacharach & David’s “Wives and Lovers.”
Hot 100 peak: No. 11
Producers: RAYE, Mike Sabath
OLIVIA RODRIGO, “THE CURE”
This would be Rodrigo’s third hit to be nominated in this category following “drivers license” and “vampire.” Daniel Nigro produced all three. Those first two contenders were the lead singles from Rodrigo’s first two albums; “the cure” was the second single from her third album (following “drop dead”). Billboard ranked “the cure” at No. 1 on its midyear list “The 50 Best Songs of 2026 So Far (Staff Picks).”
Hot 100 peak: No. 5
Producer: Daniel Nigro
TAYLOR SWIFT, “THE FATE OF OPHELIA”
This would be Swift’s seventh nod in this category. She co-produced the smash with Max Martin and Shellback, with whom she also collaborated on three previous record of the year nominees: “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together,” “Shake It Off” and “Blank Space.” This became Swift’s longest-running No. 1 hit, an impressive feat for someone so deep into her career.
Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (10 weeks)
Producers: Taylor Swift, Max Martin, Shellback
TAME IMPALA & JENNIE, “DRACULA”
This silky record never wore out its welcome at pop radio, even though it was in heavy rotation all year long. This would be Tame Impala’s first nomination in a Big Four category. He won best dance/electronic recording the last two years for “Neverender” (a collab with Justice) and “End of Summer.” This would be the second year in a row that a member of Blackpink was nominated in this category. Rosé was nominated at the 2026 ceremony for “APT.,” a collab with Bruno Mars. “Dracula” has both the pop sheen and dance groove of Daft Punk’s “Get Lucky” (feat. Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers), which won in this category in 2014.
Crack a Book: “Dracula” is one of two likely record of the year contenders which is based on classic literature. Dracula is the title of a 1897 Gothic horror novel by Bram Stoker. “The Fate of Ophelia” is based on a character from Shakespeare’s Hamlet, which was written about 1600.
Hot 100 peak: No. 3 (so far)
Producer: Kevin Parker
WITHIN REACH
Gracie Abrams, “Hit the Wall”; Phoebe Bridgers, “Lost Boys”; Ariana Grande, “Hate That I Made You Love Me”; KATSEYE, “Animal”; Lady Gaga & Doechii, “Runway”; Stella Lefty, “Boston”; Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter, “Bring Your Love”; Kacey Musgraves, “Dry Spell”;”; Rosalía, Björk and Yves Tumor, “Berghain”; Shakira X Burna Boy, “Dai Dai”; sombr, “Homewrecker”; Sienna Spiro, “Die on This Hill”; Harry Styles, “Aperture”; Don Toliver, “E85”
Dolly Parton’s “Light of a Clear Blue Morning” (feat. Lainey Wilson, Miley Cyrus, Queen Latifah and Reba McEntire) is a wild card. Some voters may check it off as a way of saluting the beloved star, who died in August.
Live versions of three songs that were pre-date the start of this eligibility year (Dominic Fike’s “Babydoll,” Zara Larsson’s “Midnight Sun” and Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings”) are entered, but live and alternative versions of hits are rarely nominated in this category.
